Elektr uzatish liniyalaridagi xavflarni vaqt qatori asosida prognozlashning mashinaviy o‘qitish algoritmi
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elektr uzatish liniyasi, vaqt qatori, xavfni prognozlash, Random Forest, logistik regressiya, Gradient Boosting, SCADA, oldindan ogohlantirish, mashinaviy o‘qitishAbstrak
Maqolada elektr uzatish liniyalarida xavfli holatlarning o‘zini aniqlashdan ko‘ra, ularni yuz berishidan oldin prognozlashga yo‘naltirilgan vaqt qatori modeli taklif etiladi. 5 daqiqalik diskretlash bilan 30 kunlik 8640 ta kuzatuvdan iborat fizik jihatdan asoslangan sintetik telemetriya to‘plami shakllantirildi. Kuchlanish, tok, harorat, chastota, quvvat koeffitsiyenti va aktiv quvvatning kechikishlari, sirpanma o‘rtachalari, dispersiyalari va trend ko‘rsatkichlari hisoblandi. Logistik regressiya, Random Forest va Gradient Boosting taqqoslandi. 30 daqiqalik oldindan ogohlantirish uchun 0,4 LR + 0,6 RF gibrid modeli 0,8895 F1 va 0,9888 ROC-AUC berdi. Test davridagi 21 ta hodisaning barchasi 15–25 daqiqa oldin signal bilan qamrab olindi
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