Digital capacity conversion in uzbekistan's sanatorium-resort sector: a methodological framework for analysing hybrid wellness service systems
Keywords:
methodological framework; capacity conversion; log-linear modelling; robustness diagnostics; sanatorium-resort sector; wellness tourism; transition economiesAbstract
This paper presents a methodological framework for analysing how fixed institutional capacity converts into service output in hybrid wellness-tourism systems, using Uzbekistan's sanatorium-resort sector as an illustrative application. The framework combines a log-linear capacity model with a structured diagnostic and robustness protocol - variance inflation, residual autocorrelation, structural-break sensitivity and leave-one-out stability checks - designed for short official annual series that are common in transition-economy sector statistics. Applying the framework to Uzbekistan's 2010–2024 official sector data, the number of institutions and bed capacity show a positive association with nominal service output in the full-sample model (R2 = 0.727), and the diagnostic protocol identifies the 2020 pandemic year as the principal source of residual autocorrelation. At the same time, the individual elasticity estimates prove unstable: the coefficients on institutions and bed capacity reverse sign when 2020 is excluded. The paper argues that the value of the framework lies in making such instability visible: explicit model specification, pre-specified diagnostic steps and transparent reporting of what the resulting estimates can and cannot support offer a replicable template for sector-level capacity research in data-constrained post-Soviet and transition-economy settings.
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